It’s plausible that this is part of Turkiye’s preparations for a campaign against Somaliland carried out under the banner of the nascent “Islamic NATO” that’s rapidly forming around Saudi Arabia.
The Middle East Eye reported that Turkiye’s deployment of three F-16s to Mogadishu “aims to protect Turkish energy and space port investments”. They also cited an official Turkish statement reaffirming Somalia’s territorial integrity amidst Israel’s recognition of Somaliland and pledging support in the fight against terrorism in a hint that it plans to play a greater role in such missions there. The outlet added that Turkiye already has armed drones and attack helicopters in Mogadishu too.
They then concluded their article by reminding readers that “Turkey now operates a large military base in Mogadishu, while Turkish companies manage both the city’s airport and port. Ankara has also trained thousands of Somali soldiers, representing roughly one-third of Somalia’s military, both in Turkey and at its Mogadishu base, known as Turksom.” It’s important to separately mention that Turkiye will reportedly receive a whopping 90% of Somalia’s offshore oil and gas revenue per summer 2024’s lopsided deal.
Taken together, this collection of facts compellingly suggests that Somalia has become a de facto Turkish protectorate, which raises the stakes in Turkiye’s rivalry with Israel after the latter’s recognition of Somaliland. While some deny that any such rivalry exists since Turkiye continued allowing Azerbaijani oil to transit its territory en route to Israel throughout the Gaza War, that’s just as dishonest as claiming that Russia and NATO aren’t rivals because Russia still sells some oil and gas to the bloc’s European members.
Moving along after having clarified that important detail, it’s therefore possible that Turkiye’s F-16 deployment to Mogadishu is part of its preparations for a military campaign against Israeli-aligned Somaliland, whose offshore oil and gas Ankara considers its own after its deal with Mogadishu. To avoid any misunderstanding, such a campaign might not be imminent or inevitable, but it was nevertheless assessed last month that “The Nascent ‘Islamic NATO’ Might Soon Set Its Sights On Somaliland”.
The gist is that Turkiye’s alliance with Somalia could combine with Saudi Arabia’s reportedly planned one with Somalia and Egypt as well as last September’s alliance with Pakistan, which is also allied with Turkiye and clinched its own security pact with Somalia last year, to create an anti-Somaliland alliance. All five are at odds with Israel for various reasons so they have a shared political interest in helping Somalia reconquer Somaliland in order to deal a symbolic blow to the Jewish State through these means.
The US is aware of all this, especially since it’s still Somalia’s top anti-terrorist partner despite Trump’s harsh remarks about it and its people, but the US hasn’t yet reacted to this emerging anti-Somaliland alliance nor to Turkiye’s F-16 deployment to Somalia. This suggests tacit approval (for the time being at least), which risks leading to a security dilemma between the “Islamic NATO” and landlocked Ethiopia, whose leader wants to diversify from his country’s dependence on Djibouti for access to the sea.
Djibouti can be considered part of this bloc given its recent port deals with Saudi Arabia and Egypt, while Eritrea and Sudan are already allied with Egypt, which also has troops in Somalia on an anti-terrorist pretext. The end result is that a regional alliance is emerging against Somaliland, whose potential reconquest by Turkiye’s de facto Somali protectorate would lead to this bloc controlling Ethiopia’s only alternative route to the sea, which could then lead to them subordinating it afterwards if that happens.