History is the record of past events. It is shaped daily by the actions, decisions, and thoughts of peoples, countries and regions. Today’s events between the Horn of Africa States and the Gulf will become tomorrow’s history, impacting future relations. This article examines how current decisions will affect both parties and the better way for both regions.
History is being made and at present it appears to be in favor of the Gulf countries who, with their enormous hydrocarbon-driven economies, wield a lot of financial power and influence over the Horn of Africa States. It appears that this does not take into consideration that there could be a reversal of roles tomorrow or sometime in the future. The world works in cycles.
We have seen in our live time the bipolar world of NATO and Warsaw Pact and the collapse, thereafter, of that bipolar world, followed by the unipolar world, when NATO played supreme, and we now see discussions of an emerging multipolar world. The BRICS Plus grouping, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the continuing NATO, and others point to a world with several power centers.
The influences of the Gulf countries over the Horn of Africa States are, in the main economic and security related, and appear to mimic the Western style of dominating others. The old histories of both regions, when the Horn African States were economically stronger, is no longer in the minds of the populations of the Gulf or so it seems.
However, one cannot lump all the Gulf countries into one block although the name does make them a singular region to reckon with. Gulf countries do not pursue the same Gulf-oriented policies towards the region or for that matter any other region. It would appear there are only three countries that deeply involve themselves in the affairs of the Horn of Africa States region and they compete among themselves, as to perhaps who can do most harm, in the eyes of the Horn African citizens. They are the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
The two regions, indeed, share a long history of trade, faith, and some cultural ties, which go back to the prime of time, but unlike other countries where Arabs went, when they were carrying the enormous Islamic faith flag, they were not able to impose their language on the peoples of the region, who kept throughout history their distinct languages and cultures. It is what still separates the Horn of Africa States region from the Gulf Arabs, despite being a close geographical neighbor.
The opening of the Suez Canal during the second half of the nineteenth century, brought in new forces to the region from Europe. The Red Sea which was basically a lake separating the two regions of the Gulf and the Horn of Africa States in the past, became an important international waterway, with global powers competing for presence there.
Until very recently it was handling more than twelve per cent of global trade. How much of that has been affected by the current tremors in those waters is not as clear yet. But the waterway’s importance with respect to, not only trade but also military and energy deliveries from sources in the Gulf region to global markets, remains strong and undiminished.
It is not that the Gulf Arabs should not have relations with the region, but it is the type of relations they are pursuing that marks them out for the Horn African, who expected a different attitude, a different approach than they would expect from a European or a far easterner or even an Indian. It would appear that the Gulf Arabs have simply copied the nineteenth century Europeans who came to divide and rule region.
Most of the problems of the region are rooted in those divisions that were created by those Europeans, namely the French, the British and the Italians who lorded over the region for nearly eighty years. The Gulf countries appear to be carrying out the same divide and rule policies in the region.
One can look at Somalia alone where the UAE maintains good relations with various Somali regions like Somaliland, Puntland, Jubaland, the Southwest State and, indeed, with the Federal Government of Somalia as well. They do not bring them together around the table or even attempt to, like the good old neighbors they were when they were hungry and in need of sustenance from the Horn of Africa States region. The irony appears to be that they do not look into the future!
The Horn of Africa region is an enormous space stretching over 3.9 million sq.km with a maritime space of over 1.1 million square km. It enjoys a youthful population of over two hundred and twenty million, which represents both a large market and a large energetic labor force. This is what attracts many nations to the region and especially when it overlooks one of the most important waterways of the world – the Mediterranean/Suez Canal/Bab El Mandab/Gulf of Aden/Indian Ocean maritime route.
It is understandable, for far and distant countries, to behave through antagonistic approaches as they have no interest other than theirs, in the region. The same behavior is, however, unexpected of the Gulf Arabs, who need, and will always need, the Horn of Africa States region for security and economic purposes, whether the region is poor or rich or whether they themselves are rich or poor. They are neighbors which will not move away from each other and are bound by geography!
The Horn of Africa States is, indeed, central to Arab Gulf countries interests today. The fear that hostile forces could establish themselves in the region or the region would finally, despite all the previous setbacks, be able to tap its enormous natural resources and then turn away from them, is unrealistic but should they not change their current hostile policies towards the region, such fear could truly materialize.
The longstanding historical good relations between the Gulf Arabs and the region seems to have vanished and it appears to have been replaced by a new colonial approach on the part of Gulf Arabs to entice a corrupt political class, which can be bought and sold for a fistful of dollars, to take over the countries. This corrupt political class not only ruined their states but also marred the relations the region would have developed with the Gulf states.
The populations of the region, youthful, fully exposed to the ways of the world, having a presence through a large diaspora across the globe, educated and intent on reversing the wrong path their countries have taken, are fully aware of the unexpected behavior of Gulf Arab sheiks towards the region.
It would be a better approach if the Gulf Arabs stood back from the current approach to the region and recognize, indeed, the region’s geostrategic location as a major link between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. They should also recognize the enormous investment possibilities of the region, not only for the production of food, but also for the enormous mineral resources of the region, which among others include hydrocarbons, where they could invest and make monies along with the source countries of the region. As experienced in this industry as they are, they could have taken advantage instead of suppressing the exploitation of these enormous resources for decades.
Instead of playing the scramble for the Horn of Africa States card, they could have worked to settle the seemingly senseless conflicts of the region, most of which are rooted in the manipulations of non-regional parties, and they would have earned the trust of the populations of the region.
It is always the better way to help a fellow neighborly country settle its internal problems instead of antagonizing them further. The side effects of continuing conflicts is neither good for the region nor for the Arab Gulf states – rivalries that eat up the dry and green at the same time, not only for the region but also for all neighboring regions.
Another better way is to invest in the region positively and not with ill-intentioned processes including taking advantage of a weaker party. The Arab Gulf states can benefit from the region through a better and genuine diplomacy, helping them overcome the enormous security challenges imposed on the region. It is only then, when investment possibilities can really take place, as peace and stability is restored. The region will forever be grateful, in the place of the current grudges they have today, which apparently the Gulf Arabs do not notice.
Still, another better way is to create a better relationship between the Horn of Africa States region and its population instead of propping up the corrupt political class that have been imposed on the region.
Helping create and develop a politically stable, economically developing, and secure and safe Horn of Africa States region is better, of course, than the current conflicted region which helps a corrupt political class and terrorism thrive in the region. This will be good for the Gulf Arabs too!